Carbon Capture Expansion: A Challenge for Climate Targets
A new study shows carbon capture and storage must expand rapidly to meet climate goals, but scaling it up faces significant challenges.
A new study from Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden and the University of Bergen in Norway highlights the growing gap between the potential of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology and the urgent climate goals set by the Paris Climate Agreement. CCS, which involves capturing carbon dioxide (CO₂) and storing it deep underground, is considered essential for reducing emissions from high-carbon industries and achieving negative emissions through methods like bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and direct air capture (DACCS). However, the study suggests that CCS is not expanding rapidly enough to meet even the 2°C target of the agreement.
As Dr Jessica Jewell, Associate Professor at Chalmers University, explains: “CCS is an important technology for achieving negative emissions and also essential for reducing carbon emissions from some of the most carbon-intensive industries. Yet our results show that major efforts are needed to bridge the gap between the demonstration projects in place today and the massive deployment we need to mitigate climate change.”
Feasibility of Large-Scale CCS
The study, Feasible deployment of carbon capture and storage and the requirements of climate targets, assessed historical growth and future potential for CCS. It concluded that at most, 600 gigatons (Gt) of CO₂ could be sequestered by the end of the century. This contrasts sharply with estimates from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which in some scenarios requires more than 1,000 Gt of CO₂ to be captured and stored by 2100.
“Our analysis shows that we are unlikely to capture and store more than 600 Gt over the 21st century,” says Tsimafei Kazlou, PhD candidate at the University of Bergen and lead author of the study. “This contrasts with many climate mitigation pathways from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which in some cases require upwards of 1000 Gt of CO₂ captured and stored by the end of the century.”
Kazlou also emphasises the time pressure on deploying CCS at scale: “It’s also important to understand when the technology can start operating at a large scale because the later we start using CCS the lower the chances are of keeping temperature rise at 1.5°C or 2°C.”
Real-World CCS Projects and Challenges
Several laboratories and pilot projects around the world are actively working on CCS. Norway’s Sleipner Project, operational since 1996, remains one of the longest-running CCS initiatives, storing CO₂ beneath the seabed. In Canada, the Boundary Dam Power Station integrates CCS into coal-fired power generation, capturing about 1 million tonnes of CO₂ annually.
In the UK, the Drax Power Station is transitioning towards BECCS, with the potential to capture millions of tonnes of CO₂ in future. Meanwhile, laboratories such as Climeworks in Switzerland are focusing on direct air capture (DAC) technology, which directly removes CO₂ from the atmosphere. Climeworks’ plant stores captured CO₂ underground in Iceland’s basalt rock, turning it into stone.
However, the challenge remains in scaling these projects. Historical CCS projects have struggled to succeed. As Kazlou points out: “About 15 years ago, during another wave of interest in CCS, planned projects failed at a rate of almost 90 percent. If historic failure rates continue, capacity in 2030 will be at most twice what it is today which would be insufficient for climate targets.”
The Road Ahead
While there is hope for CCS, rapid growth is critical. “The good news is that if CCS can grow as fast as other low-carbon technologies have, the 2°C target would be within reach (on tiptoes),” says Jewell. “The bad news, 1.5°C would likely still be out of reach.”
Professor Aleh Cherp from Central European University emphasises the need for stronger policy frameworks: “Rapid deployment of CCS needs strong support schemes to make CCS projects financially viable. At the same time, our results show that since we can only count on CCS to deliver 600 Gt of CO₂ captured and stored over the 21st century, other low-carbon technologies like solar and wind power need to expand even faster.”
Although CCS remains an essential tool in reducing emissions, it is clear that its deployment alone will not be sufficient. Comprehensive climate strategies must integrate multiple decarbonisation technologies to meet the targets of the Paris Climate Agreement.
